Tewkesbury Weather

John Dixon

Tewkesbury Weather - Statistically Speaking

Peter's Garden
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It is our great talking point but do our impressions agree with statistics?
As you see, my friend Peter has a lovely garden in the Oldbury – and he also regularly collects, and presents to me, weather statistics.
Each month I will update the Rainfall and Temperature Statistics and offer my Monthly Reflection on how the statistics underline or undermine our impressions.

John's May 2019 Reflections

May 2019 was a month of averages – better than 2018 but it is good enough long term?
Rainfall
March was only one of the five months in this year when the average has been just about reached. So despite May showers, the pattern of drought has not been alleviated, especially between June 2018 & February 2019.
Although this May was just under average, in the twenty years since Peter’s records began in 2000, twelve past Mays were average or above.
The wettest weeks were the first two and that which fell was described by Peter as “showery”, although there was “rain” especially on 8-9 May.
Temperature
May 2019 suffered below average temperatures for the first two weeks and only enjoyed above average temperatures in the afternoons with cool mornings which hovered about freezing than in March and the noticeable east wind. [On 12 May the temperature dropped below freezing.]
The afternoons were cooler than average in the first two weeks but then picked, climaxing memorably in the 60s 22-27 May with hottest day of the year so far on 23 May.
Conclusion
So no real relief from the possible summer drought – and that Easterly wind would still not have helped.

John's April 2019 Reflections

April 2019 was a month of averages – better than 2018 but it is good enough long term?
Rainfall
March was only one of the three months in the last year when the average has been just about reached. So despite April showers, the pattern of drought is not alleviated.
In the 20 years since Peter’s records began in 2000, 11 of past Aprils were average or above.
The wettest week was the first and that which fell was described by Peter as “showery”, although the last weekend contained a “gale”.
Temperature
April 2019 was enjoyed just below average temperatures with cooler mornings than in March and the noticeable east wind. [6 days saw temperatures at or below freezing.]
The afternoons were cooler than average in the first two weeks but then picked, climaxing memorably in the 60s over the Easter weekend.
Conclusion
So no real relief from the possible summer drought – and that Easterly wind would not have helped.

John's March 2019 Reflections

March 2019 was a month of averages – better than 2018 but it is good enough long term?
Rainfall
March was only one of the two months since May when the average has been exceeded. So the pattern of drought is a little alleviated.
March’s rainfall amounted to 16% above average, a contrast to only one month since May 2018. Since Peter’s records began in 2000, all except two of past Marches were above average.
Most of the rain fell between 28 February and 16 March and was described by Peter as showery.
Temperature
March 2019 enjoyed less cool mornings. Only six days saw temperatures at or below freezing.
The afternoons were much less balmy than in February – but they bucked up in the second half of the month, climaxing on 51o rather than February’s 57oF on the 21st the afternoons almost reached October temperatures.
Conclusion
So a little relief from the possible summer drought – but is it enough?

John's February 2019 Reflections

Rainfall 
The pattern of drought has continued with a little alleviation. However, February 2019 will go down in folk memory as unseasonably warm.
February’s rainfall amounted to 71% of  'average' and it follows on from consistently below average rain from June onwards.
Since Peter’s records began in 2000, 4 out of 5 of past Februarys were below average, but at least was wetter than 2018.
The week 4-10 February experienced rain.
The winter (Dec-February has produced average rain or above since 2007 – but the 5 years have only produced 2 years of normal rain.
If the forecaster’s prediction of a very hot summer is correct, then our gardens are still much less prepared to cope than last year.
Temperature
February 2019 was the coolest in the mornings for a year. [20 days saw temperatures at or below freezing].
The coldest mornings were at the cusp of the month at 18oF.
However, it was the unique afternoon temperatures whose memory will linger – 16/28 days were above average with a very warm end of month, climaxing on a barmy 57oF on the 26th. 
This is an average for September.
Conclusion
So statistically the Winter is worse than the Autumn in still not bringing the rain for which gardeners crave. 
The warmth is not significant in the longer term - except as being symptomatic of the drought.
John Dixon & Peter

John's January 2019 Reflections

Rainfall
The pattern of drought has continued and maybe worsened. January’s rainfall amounted to 26% of “average” and apart from an averagely wet December, it follows on from consistently below average rain from June onwards. Since Peter’s records began in 2000, January it was the 2nd driest result, the worst being 2006.
Most of Januarys’ rain was consistently absent.
The winter (Nov-January normally produced average rain or above – but this year this winter period only produced 59% of normal rain
If the forecaster’s prediction of a very hot summer is correct, then our gardens are much less prepared to cope than last year.
Temperature
January 2019 was average and cooler than December. The coldest morning was 31st at 18oF, the day before the predicted snow fall; and 15 days had morning temperatures of freezing and below; the 31st stayed below freezing In the afternoon; the warmest was Friday 25th with 450.
Conclusion
So statistically the Winter is worse than the Autumn in still not bringing the rain for which gardeners crave.
It was rather a nondescript average month with a hint of winter at the end of the month with snow overnight on 1 February.
The only good news is that the first week of February seems to be wet – will the statistics prove it. For the first time in months water butts are full.
John Dixon & Peter

John’s December 2018 Reflections

Rainfall
The pattern of drought has continued. Although the monthly rainfall just reached 'average' it follows on from consistent below average rain from June onwards. Since Peter’s records began in 2000, December usually manages average rainfall.
Most of December’s rain was consistently showery but we had one cool dry week from 9-15 December.
Not surprisingly 2018 was a drier than average year as were 2016-2017. The driest year was 2011 with the wettest in 2012 followed by 2007 & 2014.
Temperature
December was average but still at March levels. The coldest morning was 14th at 22oF; amidst a spell of three days with sunny cold weather.
The 7am temperature only fell fleetingly below freezing point on two other days.
Conclusion
So statistically the Winter is following the Autumn in still not bringing the rain for which gardeners crave.
It was rather a nondescript average month with a hint of winter in a three day spell.
John Dixon & Peter

John’s November 2018 Reflections

Rainfall
It might have felt like a wet month but the pattern of drought continued. This is the second November in succession of below average rainfall – but this time it was only half the average - and the driest since 2010. Since Peter’s records began in 2000, November has had below average rainfall in 11 of the 19 years.
Most of November’s rain fell over the first week with a smaller rally in the last week.
Temperature
November was about 7oF cooler in afternoons and was back to March levels. The hottest afternoon was 14 November but at 42oF rather than 64oF Oct; [remembering 75-81 in June-August in this sheltered garden.]
The 7 am temperature only fell fleetingly below freezing point on four isolated occasions.
Conclusion
So statistically the Autumn is still not bringing the rain for which gardeners crave.
It was rather a nondescript but dry month.
John Dixon & Peter

John’s October 2018 Reflections

Rainfall
Compared with September 2018 with rainfall just over average, the pattern of drought continued and this is the third October in succession of below average rainfall. Since Peter’s records began in 2000, October has had below average rainfall in 8 of the 19 years.
Most of October’s rain fell over the weekend 12-15 October.
Temperature
October was about 6oF cooler in both mornings & afternoons and was back to April/May levels. The hottest afternoon was 10 October but at 64oF rather than 70oF Sept; 75 in August, 81 in July and 80 in June, in this sheltered garden.
The 7am temperature fell consistently below freezing point for the week from 25 October.
Conclusion
So statistically the Autumn did not bring the rain for which gardeners craved.
It was still a pleasant month but morning winter temperatures have set in albeit with lovely sunny mid-days.
John Dixon & Peter

John’s September 2018 Reflections

Rainfall
Compared with August, Septmeber 2018 was drier and even more below average. [The last three Septembers were above average]. Since Peter’s records began in 2000, September has had below average rainfall in only 6 of the 19 years.
Most of September’s rain fell on Thursday 20 September.
Temperature
September was cooler in both mornings & afternoons and was back to May. The hottest afternoon was 2 September but at 70oF rather than 75 in August, 81 in July and 80 in June, in this sheltered garden.
The  am temperature reached freezing point on 3 occasions.
Conclusion
So statistically September did not bring the rain for which gardeners craved.
So the heat wave abated but it was still pleasant.
John Dixon & Peter

John’s August 2018 Reflections

Rainfall
Compared with July, August 2018 was wetter but still just below average. [The average has been affected by 3 very wet Augusts in 2004, 2010 & 2014]. Since Peter’s records began in 2000, August has had below average rainfall in 12 of the 19 years. 2015-2018 have been consistently below average. June-August 2018 have been below average.
Temperature
August was cooler in both mornings & afternoons but was back to June levels and hotter than May. The hottest afternoon was 2 August but at 75oF rather than 81 July and 80 in June in this sheltered garden.
The 7 am temperature was cooler on average of 50 [down from 53 in July]; similar to June.
Conclusion
So statistically the period May-August 2018 was the warmest since records began in 2011 – and similar to 2011.
So the heat wave did continue into August as the press predicted.
Will September bring much needed rain to rescue the lawns?
John Dixon & Peter

John’s July 2018 Reflections

[I was away in France for first two weeks! The first week in SW France was hot but the last week was more mixed; so over the five weeks the weather was ‘better’ in the UK!]
Rainfall
As trumpeted by national press, July 2018 followed June as being much drier than average but showers ensured it was wetter than June. Since Peter’s records began in 2000 July has had below average rainfall in 10 of the 19 years [bearing in mind that the average was bumped up in the notorious July 2007]. In the eleven years since 2007, seven have yielded below average rain.
Temperature
July brought even hotter afternoon temperatures than June with 80oF [27oC] exceeded on three days with 26 July hottest on 81oF [27.5oC] in this sheltered garden.
The 7 am temperature was on average of 53 [up from 49 in June].
Conclusion
So statistically July 2018 following June did live up to the hyped heat-wave; although the pattern was enlivened by showers.
Will the heat wave continue into August as the press predict?
John Dixon & Peter

John’s June 2018 Reflections

[was away in France for last three weeks! the first week in SW France was sunshine and showers but last two weeks were very hot with a severe storm on Sunday 1 July; so may be the weather was ‘better’ in the UK!]
Rainfall
As trumpeted by national press, June 2018 was the direst since these records began in 2000; June usually oscillates each year between above and below average but last two years have been below.
Temperature
After the May Day Bank Holiday came the warmest day of the year in this sheltered garden at 73oF [35oC]. This was beaten during the week 25-30 June with 76 on Tuesday 26th.
The 7 am temperature was on average of 49.
Conclusion
So statistically June 2018 did live up to the hyped heat-wave; the only rain was on Friday 8 June.
Will the heat wave continue into July as the press predict?
John Dixon & Peter

John’s May 2018 Reflections

Rainfall
May 2018 was a little wetter than average with sporadic heavy showers – following a trend since 2013 [except 2016]. The wettest sequence of Mays has been from 2006-2008.
Temperature
Statistically April’s temperatures were slightly higher than average with cooler mornings but warmer afternoons especially after the May Day Bank Holiday. This was the warmest day of the year in this sheltered garden at 73oF [35oC]
Conclusion
So statistically May 2018 was a not really the hyped heat-wave but very pleasant in the Oldbury with sporadic storms to enrich the garden and the lawns!
John Dixon & Peter

John’s April 2018 Reflections

Rainfall
April 2018 was wetter than average with April showers at the end of the month – and much wetter than April 2017 which was the second driest since 2007! with only 6mm. with the exception of two days during 1-23 April there was no rain but the last week of the month made up for that
Temperature
Statistically April’s temperatures were average but that disguises the lovely five days of summer – which means that the rest of the month must have been cooler than usual!
The afternoons are getting warmer – but not quite average except for those five days.
7 am  average 17 days 1-17 April 38.8, pm average 17 days 47.5
7 am  average 5 days 18-22 April 46.0, pm average 5 days 63.6
7 am  average 7 days 23-30 April 38.3, pm average 7 days 47.4
Conclusion
So statistically April 2018 was a cool, wetter than average, month – but we did enjoy five glorious days of summer which is repeating as I write on May Bank Holiday; that is a shock!
John Dixon & Peter

John’s March 2018 Reflections

Rainfall
March showed average rainfall after two very dry Februarys in 2017-2018.
Except for 2014-5 March usual yields average rain – 2016 was wetter.
The Dec-February quarter is usually drier than the Nov-Jan quarter but this year slightly above average.
Temperature
March like February was much colder than usual but, unlike February, the average temperature at 7 am was above freezing point.
As with last month, the afternoons were a little warmer – but still below average.
Conclusion
So March 2018 was a cool, averagely wet, month – but an improvement on the very cold February.
John Dixon & Peter

John’s February 2018 Reflections

Rainfall
It was the driest February since 2003.
The years 2003-2008 had a run of dry Februarys – except 2007!
The Dec-February quarter is usually drier than the Nov-Jan quarter.
Temperature
February was much colder than usual with the average temperature at 7 am below freezing point.
The afternoons were a little warmer – but still below average.
Conclusion
So February 2018 was a cold dry month – and that was leading into the Beast From The East – what a pity it straddled two months!
We shall see when we update in mid-April.
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